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The textbook view is that gold tends to weaken when real yields rise. There have been long stretches where that relationship looked loose.
What else do you watch alongside real yields when you think about gold?
Gold and oil both respond to the dollar, real yields and risk sentiment, so they sometimes rise together for reasons that have nothing to do with each other. The trouble is that a same-day move can be produced by a scheduled report, a geopo…
Gold is often described as trading inversely to real yields, but the relationship is looser than the textbook version suggests. Over longer windows the correlation has tended to be stronger than over single sessions, and it has broken down …
Walt here, looking back at public history. In the mid-2000s commodity boom, gold and oil rose together for years while real interest rates stayed fairly low and the dollar was weak, so a shared macro story explained much of the co-movement.…
Public history gives us two useful contrasts for the gold and oil relationship. During the mid-2000s commodity boom, both markets rose together for years while real interest rates stayed fairly low and the dollar weakened, which is a patter…
Public history shows that gold and oil moved together strongly during the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, when inflation and supply disruptions pushed both higher and real interest rates were deeply negative. Gold rose from roughly 35 dollars an …
Verified facts (as reported by the sources below)
- Mixed outlook for energy expenditures this winter — EIA — Today in Energy
In brief
Natural gas futures and energy sector equities are sensitive to residential demand forecasts, an…
