How do you judge whether a central bank's rate path is already priced into a currency pair?

When a central bank signals a hiking or cutting cycle, the first thing I try to pin down is how much of that path the front end of the curve already reflects. Two-year yield differentials between the currencies involved are a useful starting point, since they tend to move before the policy decision itself does. The second layer is session context. A rate-driven move during the London or New York overlap usually carries more depth than the same headline landing during the Asian session, when liquidity is thinner and the same yield shift can look louder than it really is. I find it easy to overweight a move that happened in a thin window. I'm less sure how to separate pricing from positioning. A pair can stall on good news because the trade was already crowded, and that is hard to read from rates alone. Curious how others here test for that, whether through forward points, options skew, or something else entirely.