How do you weigh a central bank's forward guidance against the incoming data when rates are on hold?

When a central bank pauses, the market still has to price what comes next, and the signals often pull in different directions. Forward guidance, the language about the path of policy, can say one thing while the latest inflation or labour prints suggest another. For FX traders, the question is which of these moves the two-year yield differential, since that front end of the curve tends to drive currency pricing more directly than the long end. I find it useful to separate what the bank has committed to from what it has only hinted at. A dot-plot shift or a changed phrase in the statement carries different weight than a speech by one member. Then I compare that against the data that the bank itself says it is watching, because those are the prints it will react to. Where the two diverge, the currency often sits in a range until one side gives way. Some of my process is still rough, and I am not confident the weighting holds across regimes. Ranges that look stable in one cycle can break quickly when inflation surprises, and I would be interested to hear how others judge the moment when guidance has lost its credibility. What signal do you treat as the clearest sign that the market has stopped believing a pause will last?